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Trumped - How Hard Will Trump's Presidency Hit Canada?

Donald Trump's re-election has raised concerns in Canada about the impact on the economy, real estate, and trade.

Author

Urban 411
November 14, 2024

Today, we're covering

🤔 How Trump's Presidency Will Shake Canada’s Economy

📉 Real Estate Agent Numbers Decline Sharply in Ontario

🔑 Canada’s Top Trending Cities for Renters

👷🏼 Canada’s $9M Boost for 1,500 Construction Workers

🤨 WTF of The Week

Read Time: 4 minutes

🤔 How Trump's Presidency Will Shake Canada’s Economy

  • Donald Trump's re-election has raised concerns in Canada about possible changes to trade and immigration policies.

  • Trump plans to impose a 10% tariff on all imported goods, which could negatively impact Canadian exports to the U.S., valued at nearly $600 billion annually.

  • Dejardins economists warn that tariffs and trade barriers could slow Canada’s GDP growth, potentially dropping it by 1.7% by 2028.

  • Canada is the top export market for U.S. goods, with daily trade between the two nations totaling $3.6 billion.

Why This Matters: Potential tariffs and trade restrictions could slow Canada's economic growth, shaking investor confidence and destabilizing the property market. Rising U.S. bond yields may push up Canadian interest and mortgage rates, increasing borrowing costs for Canadians.

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📉 Real Estate Agent Numbers Decline Sharply in Ontario

  • Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) saw an 8% membership drop at peak renewal time in late 2023/early 2024, marking the steepest decline since 1991.

  • Ontario had 112,000 realtors registered by the end of 2023, tripling since 2003. Growth slowed to 2.16% in 2023, the slowest in two decades.

  • TRREB alone represents 45% of all Canadian realtors; Ontario has 70% of Canada's total realtor count despite having just 15% of the population.

  • 43,000 TRREB agents had at least one transaction over the past 12 months, but almost 30,000 completed none.

Why This Matters: Alberta stood out by going against national trends, showing a 9% increase in realtors in 2023. Experts also point out that many new and part-time agents, often from industries struck by COVID-19, have joined the field but frequently leave after realizing how tough real estate can be.

  • A new report ranks Winnipeg, Saskatoon, and Edmonton as the top trending cities for renters in Canada, driven by solid engagement metrics like apartment availability, listing views, and saved searches.

  • Saskatoon saw a 27% increase in online traffic and a 34% rise in favorited listings year-over-year.

  • Edmonton ranks third, with the highest number of favorited apartment listings among all cities, appealing to young professionals and families relocating from major cities.

  • Toronto, Ottawa, and Kingston represent Ontario's most sought-after rental markets.

Why it Matters: Rental demand is shifting towards mid-sized and Prairie cities. Cities with increasing rental interest suggest growing markets for multi-family investments and new developments.

👷🏼 Canada’s $9M Boost for 1,500 Construction Workers

  • The federal government is investing over $9 million to bring in 1,500 internationally trained tradespeople to the Canadian construction workforce,

  • The funding will help foreign-trained workers in trades like carpentry, welding, and industrial mechanics get certified

Why This Matters: The government seeks to bolster the construction sector and support efforts to increase the housing supply by facilitating the entry of internationally trained tradespeople into the Canadian workforce.

📚 Canada Ends Fast-Track Study Permits

  • The Canadian government has ended the expedited Student Direct Stream (SDS) for study permits, which previously offered faster processing for students from 15 countries.

  • The programs allowed applicants to pay a $150 fee, deposit $20k in a GIC, and get a decision within 20 days.

  • Average processing times for Indian students are expected to rise to around 8 weeks.

  • The SDS program had high approval rates, with 80% of applications coming from India.

Why This Matters: Increased uncertainty in visa processing could make student housing investments riskier in the short term and affect rental yields. Regions with significant student housing developments will likely face vacancies or slower growth.

PSSST….If you enjoy reading Urban 411, you might also like this ⬇️

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🤔 WTF of The Week

High personal taxes aren’t the only reason talent is fleeing Canada—it’s also the brutal salary-to-cost-of-living ratio pushing people away. Quiet quitting is rampant, especially among service sector workers.

I’m not one to blame everything on Trudeau, but it’s hard to ignore that whenever you check a graph, things seem to start nose-diving around when he took office. Wild coincidence? Maybe, maybe not.

Shared by Reddit user u/chessj

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